0 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:30,000 Dear viewer, these subtitles were generated by a machine via the service Trint and therefore are (very) buggy. If you are capable, please help us to create good quality subtitles: https://c3subtitles.de/talk/895 Thanks! 1 00:00:14,750 --> 00:00:15,799 Yes. 2 00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:18,919 Give a warm applause to Dr. 3 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:20,809 Jonathan Dongas. 4 00:00:23,660 --> 00:00:25,819 He is the co-lead 5 00:00:25,820 --> 00:00:28,789 of the flagship project coupon 6 00:00:28,790 --> 00:00:31,069 at the Potsdam Institute for Climate 7 00:00:31,070 --> 00:00:33,619 Impact Research and all information 8 00:00:33,620 --> 00:00:35,719 about it. He will provide 9 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:37,519 and he will introduce a lot more 10 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:38,990 information for you. 11 00:00:42,470 --> 00:00:43,470 Thanks. 12 00:00:45,810 --> 00:00:48,089 So I'm in a lucky position that my 13 00:00:48,090 --> 00:00:50,279 colleagues in 14 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:52,259 two talks already gave quite a nice 15 00:00:52,260 --> 00:00:54,449 introduction to climate 16 00:00:54,450 --> 00:00:56,699 change and climate 17 00:00:56,700 --> 00:00:58,769 impacts and what can be done about it, 18 00:00:58,770 --> 00:01:00,900 maybe vegan, becoming vegan. 19 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:04,409 And so I can I can build on that 20 00:01:04,410 --> 00:01:07,019 and talk a bit about the um, 21 00:01:07,020 --> 00:01:09,209 what we see as as a bit of the 22 00:01:09,210 --> 00:01:11,459 frontier of of assisted modeling 23 00:01:11,460 --> 00:01:14,879 and that some of the key challenges 24 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:16,949 and I try to create 25 00:01:16,950 --> 00:01:19,049 connections to 26 00:01:19,050 --> 00:01:21,179 things that are maybe of interest 27 00:01:21,180 --> 00:01:23,669 for people here at different places. 28 00:01:23,670 --> 00:01:26,249 So well again, to 29 00:01:26,250 --> 00:01:28,409 to to to emphasize this again, 30 00:01:28,410 --> 00:01:30,719 this challenge of of global 31 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:32,009 warming here from a paleoclimate 32 00:01:32,010 --> 00:01:34,559 perspective. So this starts 20000 33 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:36,779 years ago in the late, 34 00:01:36,780 --> 00:01:38,639 in the maximum 35 00:01:40,050 --> 00:01:42,300 of the last glaciation where we had about 36 00:01:43,650 --> 00:01:45,959 four degrees cooler climate than today 37 00:01:45,960 --> 00:01:47,309 between three and four. 38 00:01:47,310 --> 00:01:48,959 And the members were aren't there right? 39 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:51,209 And then there was the slow warming of 40 00:01:51,210 --> 00:01:53,389 about three degrees, which took 41 00:01:53,390 --> 00:01:54,719 ten thousand years. 42 00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:56,459 It's actually quite slow. 43 00:01:56,460 --> 00:01:57,460 Then we have. 44 00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:00,569 There were 10000 years, nearly of 45 00:02:00,570 --> 00:02:02,829 of a nearly very steady climate, that's 46 00:02:02,830 --> 00:02:05,049 the Holocene, the blue curve, right? 47 00:02:05,050 --> 00:02:06,639 That's where human civilization 48 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:08,679 prospered, developed, where humans 49 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,919 developed agriculture technologies, 50 00:02:11,920 --> 00:02:13,479 the industrial revolution took place. 51 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:15,609 And then suddenly there's this kink 52 00:02:15,610 --> 00:02:17,769 as very comparably, 53 00:02:17,770 --> 00:02:19,689 very fast warming there. 54 00:02:19,690 --> 00:02:21,669 That's the industrial revolution driven 55 00:02:21,670 --> 00:02:23,919 by human anthropogenic emissions 56 00:02:23,920 --> 00:02:25,659 of greenhouse gases and land use change 57 00:02:25,660 --> 00:02:26,660 mainly. 58 00:02:27,460 --> 00:02:29,409 This is all from paleoclimate data from 59 00:02:29,410 --> 00:02:32,199 ice cores and other sources. 60 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:34,449 Now, these had crude data. 61 00:02:34,450 --> 00:02:36,639 These are measurements, and they 62 00:02:36,640 --> 00:02:38,859 confirm the earlier sources 63 00:02:38,860 --> 00:02:40,929 here. There's still this quick 64 00:02:40,930 --> 00:02:43,059 warming, and it's really important to 65 00:02:43,060 --> 00:02:44,949 mention that it's not only the amplitude 66 00:02:44,950 --> 00:02:46,089 of warming that's important to you. 67 00:02:46,090 --> 00:02:48,369 We have about one degree 68 00:02:48,370 --> 00:02:50,829 of warming in this in the threat curve 69 00:02:50,830 --> 00:02:53,049 already compared to these three degrees 70 00:02:53,050 --> 00:02:55,179 of warming since the maximum 71 00:02:55,180 --> 00:02:56,379 off the last Ice Age. 72 00:02:56,380 --> 00:02:57,759 But what is also very important is the 73 00:02:57,760 --> 00:02:59,679 rate of warming. You know, it's it's 100 74 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:01,929 times faster than what's 75 00:03:01,930 --> 00:03:04,059 happened from the last Ice Age to 76 00:03:04,060 --> 00:03:05,079 the Holocene. 77 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:06,849 This anthropogenic warming 100 times 78 00:03:06,850 --> 00:03:09,069 faster, and that's actually what creates 79 00:03:09,070 --> 00:03:10,630 a lot of problems for adaptation. 80 00:03:11,740 --> 00:03:13,419 Then if we go further into the future, 81 00:03:13,420 --> 00:03:14,839 this gets even more extreme, right? 82 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:15,840 This is one of the, 83 00:03:17,170 --> 00:03:19,449 um, quite extreme greenhouse 84 00:03:19,450 --> 00:03:21,939 gas emissions in areas, which is actually 85 00:03:21,940 --> 00:03:23,839 a business as usual scenario. 86 00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:25,959 So that's what is 87 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:28,389 projected to happen when we just continue 88 00:03:28,390 --> 00:03:30,009 with business as usual emitting. 89 00:03:31,900 --> 00:03:34,179 And this goes up to three 90 00:03:34,180 --> 00:03:35,259 degrees or four degrees. 91 00:03:35,260 --> 00:03:37,029 So we've seen that before as well. 92 00:03:37,030 --> 00:03:39,159 So again, 100 times faster. 93 00:03:40,540 --> 00:03:41,979 Very extreme. 94 00:03:41,980 --> 00:03:43,629 So what does this doing this is actually 95 00:03:43,630 --> 00:03:45,879 bringing us to a new geological 96 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:47,889 age, which has been 20 Anthropocene 97 00:03:48,940 --> 00:03:51,339 where social dynamics, 98 00:03:51,340 --> 00:03:52,929 social technological dynamics actually 99 00:03:52,930 --> 00:03:54,369 has become the dominant process in the 100 00:03:54,370 --> 00:03:55,899 Earth's system. The Earth system is very 101 00:03:55,900 --> 00:03:56,900 complex. 102 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:00,669 Lots of different processes to acting on 103 00:04:00,670 --> 00:04:02,949 global scales, on low cascades, regional 104 00:04:02,950 --> 00:04:04,629 scales, on different temporary scales. 105 00:04:04,630 --> 00:04:06,609 But humans have created these these 106 00:04:06,610 --> 00:04:07,719 networks, which we call also 107 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:09,609 globalization, right? 108 00:04:09,610 --> 00:04:11,799 Networks of information 109 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:14,259 flows, networks of trade, networks 110 00:04:14,260 --> 00:04:15,729 of resource flux. 111 00:04:16,750 --> 00:04:19,389 And it's actually these technological 112 00:04:19,390 --> 00:04:21,429 systems, these technological networks 113 00:04:21,430 --> 00:04:23,769 that have created that have enabled 114 00:04:23,770 --> 00:04:25,869 this global warming, this this huge 115 00:04:25,870 --> 00:04:27,189 greenhouse gas emissions. 116 00:04:27,190 --> 00:04:28,419 So it's it's really a social 117 00:04:28,420 --> 00:04:30,519 technological dynamic that 118 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:31,989 has been driving this so that that's kind 119 00:04:31,990 --> 00:04:33,549 of relating to the title, right? 120 00:04:33,550 --> 00:04:34,689 That's the Anthropocene. 121 00:04:34,690 --> 00:04:36,279 There are some challenges. 122 00:04:36,280 --> 00:04:37,929 Then again, this curve here the 123 00:04:37,930 --> 00:04:39,909 paleoclimate view on global warming the 124 00:04:39,910 --> 00:04:41,169 last 20000 years. 125 00:04:41,170 --> 00:04:43,239 But this also brings in some more 126 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:45,849 information. One is the 127 00:04:45,850 --> 00:04:48,249 tipping element in 128 00:04:48,250 --> 00:04:49,599 so-called tipping elements in the climate 129 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:51,729 system. These are parts 130 00:04:51,730 --> 00:04:52,899 of the climate system that have a 131 00:04:52,900 --> 00:04:55,119 nonlinear response to global warming. 132 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:57,729 So they they can tip, they can 133 00:04:57,730 --> 00:04:59,839 tip like like something that 134 00:04:59,840 --> 00:05:02,019 to standing on a set, they can tip over 135 00:05:02,020 --> 00:05:04,179 if a certain threshold is exceeded and 136 00:05:04,180 --> 00:05:05,859 the threshold is indicated by this 137 00:05:05,860 --> 00:05:08,019 uncertainty ranges staff from yellow 138 00:05:08,020 --> 00:05:09,279 to red. So 139 00:05:10,390 --> 00:05:12,489 it's and a lot of 140 00:05:12,490 --> 00:05:14,229 them actually a lot of these thresholds, 141 00:05:14,230 --> 00:05:16,719 they cluster in a range between 142 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:19,029 1.5 and two degrees. 143 00:05:19,030 --> 00:05:21,309 That's this. This cluster of tipping 144 00:05:21,310 --> 00:05:23,049 elements possibly switch within the Paris 145 00:05:23,050 --> 00:05:24,970 range. And these include important 146 00:05:26,020 --> 00:05:27,999 ice sheets on the Earth, which could 147 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:30,069 create huge sea level rise, but 148 00:05:30,070 --> 00:05:32,319 also at peak glaciers 149 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:33,309 and coral reefs. 150 00:05:33,310 --> 00:05:34,659 And that's actually where this Paris 151 00:05:34,660 --> 00:05:36,759 Agreement temperature range comes from. 152 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:39,399 1.5 to two degrees has been agreed 153 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:40,959 as the limit to global warming and the 154 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:43,829 Paris Climate Agreement two years ago. 155 00:05:43,830 --> 00:05:45,959 And but if 156 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:47,969 you look at this curve, it shows that 157 00:05:47,970 --> 00:05:50,219 really most of the scenarios, these 158 00:05:50,220 --> 00:05:52,169 RCP scenarios that have been studies, 159 00:05:52,170 --> 00:05:54,339 they they were should 160 00:05:54,340 --> 00:05:56,669 beyond that and that would hit even 161 00:05:56,670 --> 00:05:58,379 these upper clusters of tipping elements, 162 00:05:58,380 --> 00:06:00,539 which are, for example, Amazon rainforest 163 00:06:00,540 --> 00:06:02,639 boreal forest so had in circulation 164 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:03,629 of the oceans. 165 00:06:03,630 --> 00:06:06,029 And only if you have a very nice 166 00:06:06,030 --> 00:06:07,859 sustainability transformation, just as if 167 00:06:07,860 --> 00:06:09,899 you two point six scenario, you might 168 00:06:09,900 --> 00:06:12,539 avoid these tipping elements to tip. 169 00:06:12,540 --> 00:06:14,669 So that's the picture of of 170 00:06:14,670 --> 00:06:16,170 current climate science, 171 00:06:17,220 --> 00:06:19,379 and this might even intersect and create 172 00:06:19,380 --> 00:06:20,909 tipping cascades. 173 00:06:20,910 --> 00:06:23,429 So this is 174 00:06:23,430 --> 00:06:25,319 from a paper that is just in press. 175 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:27,509 But now 176 00:06:27,510 --> 00:06:29,729 they are not only climate 177 00:06:29,730 --> 00:06:31,319 change as an issue, but as Ben has 178 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:33,299 pointed out and others as well also other 179 00:06:33,300 --> 00:06:35,549 sustainability dimensions that humans 180 00:06:35,550 --> 00:06:37,619 have had an impact on, and they 181 00:06:37,620 --> 00:06:38,819 are summarized in the planetary 182 00:06:38,820 --> 00:06:40,019 boundaries concept. 183 00:06:40,020 --> 00:06:42,149 And it's just important to mention that 184 00:06:42,150 --> 00:06:43,559 not only climate change is a problem, 185 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:45,719 that all of these are a problem and 186 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:48,329 these different dimensions like biosphere 187 00:06:48,330 --> 00:06:50,399 integrity, destruction and climate 188 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:53,039 change, but also chemical pollution 189 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:54,149 or deforestation. 190 00:06:54,150 --> 00:06:56,249 They are all intersecting and they are 191 00:06:56,250 --> 00:06:57,989 taking the system away from something 192 00:06:57,990 --> 00:06:59,309 that has been called a safe operating 193 00:06:59,310 --> 00:07:01,349 space for humanity by people like you and 194 00:07:01,350 --> 00:07:02,909 talks to him with Stefan. 195 00:07:02,910 --> 00:07:06,029 And the challenge for sustainability 196 00:07:06,030 --> 00:07:08,279 transformation is to basically 197 00:07:08,280 --> 00:07:10,709 return to the safe operating space, 198 00:07:10,710 --> 00:07:13,199 which is the only 199 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:15,719 state of the US system that is known to 200 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:17,639 be a good state for human societies to 201 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:18,539 prosper. 202 00:07:18,540 --> 00:07:20,729 And you can then bring 203 00:07:20,730 --> 00:07:23,039 the human social dimension in and asked 204 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:25,979 well for what our system states 205 00:07:25,980 --> 00:07:28,619 are. Dispensary boundaries not violated. 206 00:07:28,620 --> 00:07:30,629 But we are also certain social 207 00:07:30,630 --> 00:07:31,859 foundations are met. 208 00:07:31,860 --> 00:07:34,379 So they are basic, um, 209 00:07:34,380 --> 00:07:36,629 basic needs 210 00:07:36,630 --> 00:07:38,879 of humans like food, water income, 211 00:07:38,880 --> 00:07:40,979 but also jobs, voice, 212 00:07:40,980 --> 00:07:42,269 gender equality. 213 00:07:42,270 --> 00:07:44,369 So and the safe and just operating 214 00:07:44,370 --> 00:07:46,829 space proposed by Kate Rogers is a 215 00:07:46,830 --> 00:07:48,899 hypothetical space of 216 00:07:48,900 --> 00:07:51,269 Earth system states that allow for 217 00:07:51,270 --> 00:07:53,549 these two things the environmental 218 00:07:53,550 --> 00:07:55,739 sealing and the social foundation to 219 00:07:55,740 --> 00:07:57,629 be met at the same time. 220 00:07:57,630 --> 00:08:00,359 And that's, of course, what 221 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:02,699 some people call 222 00:08:02,700 --> 00:08:03,959 Earth resilience. 223 00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:06,059 So the question is in which what 224 00:08:06,060 --> 00:08:07,379 are future trajectories of the Earth 225 00:08:07,380 --> 00:08:09,689 system, where the Earth's system 226 00:08:09,690 --> 00:08:12,599 and human societies in it are resilient? 227 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:14,879 And we are currently on a business 228 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:17,189 as usual trajectory which takes us 229 00:08:17,190 --> 00:08:19,349 out of such a resilient state clearly 230 00:08:19,350 --> 00:08:22,079 and might take us even to hothouse states 231 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:23,639 similar to those where the dinosaurs 232 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:24,779 lived. That's why the T. 233 00:08:24,780 --> 00:08:26,879 Rex was there on earlier slide. 234 00:08:26,880 --> 00:08:28,559 But then the question is, are there 235 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:29,669 actually non-linear social 236 00:08:29,670 --> 00:08:31,649 transformations that can maintain the 237 00:08:31,650 --> 00:08:33,779 Earth system in a manageable state, 238 00:08:33,780 --> 00:08:35,189 in a state of higher resilience? 239 00:08:35,190 --> 00:08:36,479 So that would be the curve that goes 240 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:37,379 down, right? 241 00:08:37,380 --> 00:08:38,849 Or are there intrinsic feedbacks and 242 00:08:38,850 --> 00:08:41,999 tipping cascades that take the system up 243 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:45,179 to such a hot ice free state? 244 00:08:45,180 --> 00:08:47,519 And now the 245 00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:49,979 the problem is really that current 246 00:08:49,980 --> 00:08:51,599 models of global change cannot really 247 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:53,879 answer such questions in 248 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:56,489 a in a satisfactory 249 00:08:56,490 --> 00:08:58,319 degree and why this is so I would try to 250 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:01,289 explain in 251 00:09:01,290 --> 00:09:03,509 the next slide. So this this 252 00:09:03,510 --> 00:09:05,759 is the challenge of of an 253 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:07,859 integrated system modeling 254 00:09:07,860 --> 00:09:10,259 that through metros collapse 255 00:09:10,260 --> 00:09:12,089 of computer simulations that Ben has 256 00:09:12,090 --> 00:09:14,519 already talked about and the 257 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:16,679 change that Chen Hooper has has already 258 00:09:16,680 --> 00:09:18,479 outlined in 1999. 259 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:20,969 And even before that, and 260 00:09:20,970 --> 00:09:23,099 the idea is to look at the 261 00:09:23,100 --> 00:09:25,349 system as a core evolution space of where 262 00:09:25,350 --> 00:09:27,749 they are environmental dimensions of 263 00:09:27,750 --> 00:09:29,369 the biophysical climate system, but also 264 00:09:29,370 --> 00:09:31,469 social dimensions of human societies. 265 00:09:31,470 --> 00:09:33,059 And you can look at trajectories 266 00:09:34,230 --> 00:09:36,509 of the other system in this space. 267 00:09:36,510 --> 00:09:38,069 They are there might be catastrophic 268 00:09:38,070 --> 00:09:39,389 domains, but you don't want to go with 269 00:09:39,390 --> 00:09:40,769 the tipping. Elements are tipping. 270 00:09:40,770 --> 00:09:42,029 They are inaccessible domains. 271 00:09:42,030 --> 00:09:43,919 But you cannot go because they violate, 272 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:45,449 for example, a basic physical laws, 273 00:09:45,450 --> 00:09:46,979 energy conservation or something like 274 00:09:46,980 --> 00:09:49,289 that. And then but then there might also 275 00:09:49,290 --> 00:09:52,079 be parts of that space 276 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:53,639 that that are something like a safe 277 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:55,469 operating space in the sense of the 278 00:09:55,470 --> 00:09:57,089 planetary boundaries or even a safe and 279 00:09:57,090 --> 00:09:59,609 just operating space in the sense of 280 00:09:59,610 --> 00:10:01,649 K-dramas, in the sense of the so-called 281 00:10:01,650 --> 00:10:02,639 Oxfam donut. 282 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:05,369 And the challenge for such an integrated 283 00:10:05,370 --> 00:10:07,469 whole Earth system analysis is really 284 00:10:07,470 --> 00:10:09,719 to ask, for example, are there even 285 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:11,459 is there even something like a safe 286 00:10:11,460 --> 00:10:13,229 operating space in the sense? 287 00:10:13,230 --> 00:10:14,409 What does the size of it? 288 00:10:14,410 --> 00:10:15,959 What is its shape? 289 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:18,269 What is the resilience of societies, 290 00:10:18,270 --> 00:10:20,399 the states within this, this 291 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:22,379 space, under which conditions does it 292 00:10:22,380 --> 00:10:23,809 exist? 293 00:10:23,810 --> 00:10:25,889 And these are really systems 294 00:10:25,890 --> 00:10:27,719 questions where you need the complex 295 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:29,759 systems analysis to answer them. 296 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:31,859 So you have to run huge ensembles of 297 00:10:31,860 --> 00:10:33,539 of complex models. 298 00:10:33,540 --> 00:10:34,949 You have to do uncertainty analysis, 299 00:10:34,950 --> 00:10:37,079 probabilistic things and so on and 300 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:39,269 so forth, and 301 00:10:39,270 --> 00:10:40,799 even becomes a bit more complex. 302 00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:42,929 So they are different 303 00:10:42,930 --> 00:10:44,879 than. Mentions of such an analysis, which 304 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:46,939 which are very important and just too 305 00:10:46,940 --> 00:10:49,139 to mention them very briefly, such 306 00:10:49,140 --> 00:10:51,209 new, such a kind of 307 00:10:51,210 --> 00:10:53,399 integrated a system analysis we think 308 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:55,949 needs to take into account really 309 00:10:55,950 --> 00:10:57,479 the dimension of human agency. 310 00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:00,059 So models have to represent agents 311 00:11:00,060 --> 00:11:02,219 and they cannot. 312 00:11:02,220 --> 00:11:04,079 And their macro dynamics that emerges 313 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:05,789 from agent behavior, for example, people 314 00:11:05,790 --> 00:11:07,979 making decisions, sharing 315 00:11:07,980 --> 00:11:09,839 information on social networks, what 316 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:11,579 recourse copycat dynamics emerges from 317 00:11:11,580 --> 00:11:13,559 that that might be relevant, for example, 318 00:11:13,560 --> 00:11:14,580 for climate policy, 319 00:11:15,900 --> 00:11:17,819 then actually taking these networks into 320 00:11:17,820 --> 00:11:19,559 account? Globe what that make up 321 00:11:19,560 --> 00:11:20,560 globalization, 322 00:11:21,870 --> 00:11:24,419 they taking modeling them explicitly. 323 00:11:24,420 --> 00:11:26,789 That is what way a complex 324 00:11:26,790 --> 00:11:28,589 network theory provides a lot of it for 325 00:11:28,590 --> 00:11:30,659 doing that. That's the second point. 326 00:11:30,660 --> 00:11:32,819 These representing these networks in our 327 00:11:32,820 --> 00:11:34,919 net microscopes and 328 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:37,319 the third point is really to capture 329 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:39,749 the evolution of 330 00:11:39,750 --> 00:11:41,909 nature and societies in these 331 00:11:41,910 --> 00:11:44,819 models and to really go beyond 332 00:11:44,820 --> 00:11:45,820 what 333 00:11:46,950 --> 00:11:48,720 just doing optimization 334 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:52,019 calculations like economists often 335 00:11:52,020 --> 00:11:54,209 do with actually good reasons. 336 00:11:54,210 --> 00:11:56,279 But if you want to look at resilience, if 337 00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:58,349 you want to look at these questions like 338 00:11:58,350 --> 00:11:59,909 that's a safe operating space exist at 339 00:11:59,910 --> 00:12:01,859 all, you cannot do it with optimization 340 00:12:01,860 --> 00:12:02,860 models. 341 00:12:04,230 --> 00:12:06,359 So a novel type of model is 342 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:08,039 needed for doing this type of analysis, 343 00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:09,359 which we would as models. 344 00:12:10,470 --> 00:12:12,779 Such models currently don't exist. 345 00:12:12,780 --> 00:12:14,999 And so we are doing some modest efforts 346 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:16,049 in the coupon project 347 00:12:17,100 --> 00:12:18,449 to create such models. 348 00:12:18,450 --> 00:12:20,669 And for example, 349 00:12:20,670 --> 00:12:22,619 again, this model should allow to 350 00:12:22,620 --> 00:12:24,119 represent social network dynamics, 351 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:26,309 opinion formation, social tipping points, 352 00:12:26,310 --> 00:12:28,679 tipping into actions to address questions 353 00:12:28,680 --> 00:12:30,719 like How do actually these climate 354 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:32,549 tipping elements like the Greenland Ice 355 00:12:32,550 --> 00:12:34,049 Sheet and Arctic Ice Sheet interact with 356 00:12:34,050 --> 00:12:36,029 potential social tipping elements? 357 00:12:36,030 --> 00:12:37,439 What are potential social tipping 358 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:40,079 elements, for example, opinion formation? 359 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:42,149 It's not. Who has the 360 00:12:42,150 --> 00:12:44,369 potential to be a tipping element. 361 00:12:44,370 --> 00:12:47,009 Climate policy can be a tipping element 362 00:12:47,010 --> 00:12:48,389 to the divestment movement. 363 00:12:48,390 --> 00:12:49,739 The social movement on divestment from 364 00:12:49,740 --> 00:12:51,149 fossil fuels can be a tipping element 365 00:12:51,150 --> 00:12:52,529 that can be tipping cascades on this 366 00:12:52,530 --> 00:12:54,809 network, and 367 00:12:54,810 --> 00:12:55,919 this is something we have to. 368 00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:56,970 So we have to do that, 369 00:12:58,290 --> 00:13:01,709 and this is just showing 370 00:13:01,710 --> 00:13:03,749 the types of 371 00:13:04,770 --> 00:13:06,839 global change models that are out there, 372 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:09,089 that the types of the two dominant 373 00:13:09,090 --> 00:13:10,589 types of models that are out there right 374 00:13:10,590 --> 00:13:12,719 now are so-called assisted models and 375 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:14,489 integrated assessment models. 376 00:13:14,490 --> 00:13:17,099 Both are focusing, 377 00:13:17,100 --> 00:13:19,259 focusing, respectively on the 378 00:13:19,260 --> 00:13:20,879 biophysical dimensions of the Earth 379 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:22,079 system. These are the Earth system 380 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:24,929 models. They focus on the climate system 381 00:13:24,930 --> 00:13:27,029 and the 382 00:13:27,030 --> 00:13:28,199 integrated assessment models. 383 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:29,909 They focused mainly on the socio 384 00:13:29,910 --> 00:13:31,889 metabolic or economic dimensions of the 385 00:13:31,890 --> 00:13:32,819 Earth system. 386 00:13:32,820 --> 00:13:35,159 And then these these new types 387 00:13:35,160 --> 00:13:37,619 of models that we envision should focus 388 00:13:37,620 --> 00:13:40,889 on a process detailed representation 389 00:13:40,890 --> 00:13:42,749 of things going on in socio cultural 390 00:13:42,750 --> 00:13:44,609 domains. Really, again, what is 391 00:13:44,610 --> 00:13:45,549 sociocultural? 392 00:13:45,550 --> 00:13:47,399 This is again, opinion formation, 393 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:49,379 creation of institutions, dynamics of 394 00:13:49,380 --> 00:13:51,689 organizations, um, 395 00:13:51,690 --> 00:13:52,690 and such things. 396 00:13:54,700 --> 00:13:55,719 And why? 397 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:57,369 Why do we even think that we can do that 398 00:13:57,370 --> 00:13:59,679 because it seems to be a huge, very 399 00:13:59,680 --> 00:14:01,059 difficult task. 400 00:14:01,060 --> 00:14:03,639 And we've seen that 401 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:05,109 even though we've come a long way since 402 00:14:05,110 --> 00:14:08,230 the Limits to Growth Report 1972. 403 00:14:10,150 --> 00:14:11,139 I mean, there have been a lot of 404 00:14:11,140 --> 00:14:12,940 developments since then 40 years 405 00:14:14,350 --> 00:14:16,269 past or even more. 406 00:14:16,270 --> 00:14:17,529 Forty five. 407 00:14:17,530 --> 00:14:19,699 And um, there has been 408 00:14:19,700 --> 00:14:21,429 huge progress in computing power since 409 00:14:21,430 --> 00:14:23,499 then, of course. So comprehensive 410 00:14:23,500 --> 00:14:24,939 system modeling is advancing fast 411 00:14:24,940 --> 00:14:27,129 already, and we can exploit this progress 412 00:14:27,130 --> 00:14:28,029 further. 413 00:14:28,030 --> 00:14:30,399 The advances in complex systems theory, 414 00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:32,559 social ecological systems modeling, 415 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:34,899 social simulation and similar fields 416 00:14:34,900 --> 00:14:36,969 that allow really computer simulations of 417 00:14:36,970 --> 00:14:39,639 certain aspects of social macro dynamics. 418 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:41,229 So, for example, again, this opinion 419 00:14:41,230 --> 00:14:43,329 formation example, we've done 420 00:14:43,330 --> 00:14:45,399 a study on how smokers have 421 00:14:45,400 --> 00:14:47,379 been marginalized in social networks in 422 00:14:47,380 --> 00:14:49,449 the US through the past 40 423 00:14:49,450 --> 00:14:50,499 years or so, and we can do, 424 00:14:51,550 --> 00:14:53,859 at least on a qualitative level, 425 00:14:53,860 --> 00:14:57,099 quite nice projections 426 00:14:57,100 --> 00:14:58,929 of of social network dynamics, and we can 427 00:14:58,930 --> 00:15:00,159 understand why certain things are 428 00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:01,899 happening the way they are doing. 429 00:15:01,900 --> 00:15:04,239 And this is actually possible through 430 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:06,819 mostly agent based modeling approaches, 431 00:15:06,820 --> 00:15:09,249 where you simulate the 432 00:15:09,250 --> 00:15:11,439 dynamics of thousands of 433 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:13,629 simple agents and studied the macro 434 00:15:13,630 --> 00:15:15,729 properties that emerge from 435 00:15:15,730 --> 00:15:17,019 that, for example, at the fraction of 436 00:15:17,020 --> 00:15:18,429 people that have a certain opinion and 437 00:15:18,430 --> 00:15:19,450 how it changes over time. 438 00:15:21,190 --> 00:15:23,200 Then the third point is that big data 439 00:15:24,670 --> 00:15:26,229 on social dynamics is increasingly 440 00:15:26,230 --> 00:15:28,689 available and 441 00:15:28,690 --> 00:15:29,799 in, if you will. 442 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:32,649 And of course, this is valuable for 443 00:15:32,650 --> 00:15:34,509 science, but you have to be, of course, 444 00:15:34,510 --> 00:15:37,389 very careful about, um, 445 00:15:37,390 --> 00:15:39,249 issues that that can happen when you have 446 00:15:39,250 --> 00:15:41,079 too much data like that. 447 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:42,429 And in most cases, you don't have it. 448 00:15:42,430 --> 00:15:43,869 That's one of our main problems. 449 00:15:43,870 --> 00:15:45,279 I mean, they are the data are that, but 450 00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:47,229 we cannot get it as scientists. 451 00:15:47,230 --> 00:15:48,999 And the fourth point is they are emerging 452 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:51,099 research networks that aim at fostering 453 00:15:51,100 --> 00:15:53,289 such inter and transdisciplinary 454 00:15:53,290 --> 00:15:54,939 research. So this is really about 455 00:15:54,940 --> 00:15:57,639 integrating natural and social sciences 456 00:15:57,640 --> 00:15:59,739 to a degree that is much 457 00:15:59,740 --> 00:16:01,869 closer than has been done in 458 00:16:01,870 --> 00:16:03,009 the past. 459 00:16:03,010 --> 00:16:04,569 And this is, of course, very difficult 460 00:16:04,570 --> 00:16:05,739 because everyone speaks different 461 00:16:05,740 --> 00:16:07,599 languages, but they are these networks. 462 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,479 Progress is slow, but 463 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:11,480 there's some hope. 464 00:16:12,730 --> 00:16:14,349 And now this is a bit more concrete on 465 00:16:14,350 --> 00:16:16,459 what we are doing in 466 00:16:16,460 --> 00:16:18,759 the coupon project, we are developing a 467 00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:20,349 software framework for that, which is 468 00:16:20,350 --> 00:16:22,149 called code coupon code because it's our 469 00:16:22,150 --> 00:16:24,369 core activity at the moment. 470 00:16:24,370 --> 00:16:25,779 So it doesn't really hasn't have a 471 00:16:25,780 --> 00:16:26,709 meaning as an acronym. 472 00:16:26,710 --> 00:16:28,809 So so far, maybe it has at some 473 00:16:28,810 --> 00:16:30,909 point. And the idea is 474 00:16:30,910 --> 00:16:32,739 really to provide a framework to build 475 00:16:32,740 --> 00:16:34,959 such models that has the potential to 476 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:37,389 represent these, these different spheres 477 00:16:37,390 --> 00:16:39,069 of the system that we've talked about 478 00:16:39,070 --> 00:16:42,219 before. So this is the environmental 479 00:16:42,220 --> 00:16:44,589 sphere than nature, which 480 00:16:44,590 --> 00:16:47,229 we call the biophysical text on which, 481 00:16:47,230 --> 00:16:49,899 where. And then there's this metabolic 482 00:16:49,900 --> 00:16:52,149 sphere and the culture is fear 483 00:16:52,150 --> 00:16:54,609 and the they are different entities 484 00:16:54,610 --> 00:16:56,259 in the models. So different things that 485 00:16:56,260 --> 00:16:59,049 are. And one 486 00:16:59,050 --> 00:17:00,729 thing that is very simple and easy to 487 00:17:00,730 --> 00:17:01,929 understand ourselves. 488 00:17:01,930 --> 00:17:04,568 So these are basically grids said, where 489 00:17:04,569 --> 00:17:06,219 typically a lot of biophysical dynamics 490 00:17:06,220 --> 00:17:08,469 are going on, but also, for example, 491 00:17:08,470 --> 00:17:10,358 agents, individuals, which is a different 492 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:11,529 type of entity. 493 00:17:11,530 --> 00:17:13,989 Lives can live in a certain cell. 494 00:17:13,990 --> 00:17:15,639 Um, and then there's another type of 495 00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:17,379 entity that we highlight here. 496 00:17:17,380 --> 00:17:18,759 These are social systems. 497 00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:22,419 These are things like aggregate 498 00:17:22,420 --> 00:17:24,699 systems of parts of society, like 499 00:17:24,700 --> 00:17:26,799 a nation state, for example, or a city 500 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:28,929 that I described more on 501 00:17:28,930 --> 00:17:31,059 the on the macroscopic level by 502 00:17:31,060 --> 00:17:32,649 some aggregate variables, for example, 503 00:17:32,650 --> 00:17:35,289 like production, harvesting, wealth, 504 00:17:35,290 --> 00:17:37,449 capital stocks and so on. 505 00:17:37,450 --> 00:17:39,399 And these different entities are, of 506 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:40,479 course, interacting. 507 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:42,159 They are somehow related to each other, 508 00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:43,269 and they are different modeling 509 00:17:43,270 --> 00:17:45,249 approaches like agent based modeling, 510 00:17:45,250 --> 00:17:46,809 adaptive networks, differential 511 00:17:46,810 --> 00:17:49,149 equations, stochastic 512 00:17:49,150 --> 00:17:51,219 equations that we can use to model 513 00:17:51,220 --> 00:17:52,899 the dynamics of these entities. 514 00:17:52,900 --> 00:17:54,500 So they are, um. 515 00:17:55,980 --> 00:17:58,229 This is another 516 00:17:58,230 --> 00:17:59,939 type of another look at that, which is 517 00:17:59,940 --> 00:18:02,519 more like an UML diagrams that just shows 518 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:04,859 how the different entities 519 00:18:04,860 --> 00:18:07,019 in the model are represented by 520 00:18:07,020 --> 00:18:09,389 bi classes, by objects and 521 00:18:09,390 --> 00:18:11,069 how they can be related to each other. 522 00:18:11,070 --> 00:18:13,109 For example, an individual can live on a 523 00:18:13,110 --> 00:18:15,359 cell or a social 524 00:18:15,360 --> 00:18:17,909 system and owns 525 00:18:17,910 --> 00:18:19,529 a number of individuals so individuals 526 00:18:19,530 --> 00:18:21,390 can belong to social systems and so on. 527 00:18:23,570 --> 00:18:26,029 Then software design, it's 528 00:18:26,030 --> 00:18:27,949 we have a reference implementation in 529 00:18:27,950 --> 00:18:29,089 Python. 530 00:18:29,090 --> 00:18:31,809 It's, um, it's object oriented. 531 00:18:31,810 --> 00:18:33,949 Um, we have we put a lot of effort 532 00:18:33,950 --> 00:18:36,889 in in providing a good documentation 533 00:18:36,890 --> 00:18:39,189 test framework and tool 534 00:18:39,190 --> 00:18:41,449 to allow for parallel simulations on our 535 00:18:41,450 --> 00:18:43,699 cluster because that's super important. 536 00:18:43,700 --> 00:18:45,919 And this is, of course, all, um, 537 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:47,989 all work in progress in a way because 538 00:18:47,990 --> 00:18:50,059 we have relatively low resources for 539 00:18:50,060 --> 00:18:51,060 doing that. 540 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:53,719 Um, but it's basically made in 541 00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:56,209 a way that people can really 542 00:18:56,210 --> 00:18:58,549 plug and play, um, their modules 543 00:18:58,550 --> 00:19:00,869 together. So it's a broad based module 544 00:19:00,870 --> 00:19:02,569 resolution that allows for different 545 00:19:02,570 --> 00:19:03,979 levels of involvement of people. 546 00:19:03,980 --> 00:19:06,049 So that can be model users that are just 547 00:19:06,050 --> 00:19:08,209 using modules in a scripting kind 548 00:19:08,210 --> 00:19:10,339 of way. There can be component developers 549 00:19:10,340 --> 00:19:12,919 to develop different parts 550 00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:14,749 to represent different types of assistant 551 00:19:14,750 --> 00:19:16,879 processes, for example, and 552 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:18,739 there can be framework developers like us 553 00:19:18,740 --> 00:19:20,269 who are really providing the sourcing and 554 00:19:20,270 --> 00:19:21,979 trying to make it more performant, for 555 00:19:21,980 --> 00:19:24,049 example, or to 556 00:19:24,050 --> 00:19:25,549 port it to a different programing, 557 00:19:25,550 --> 00:19:27,169 language or something like that. 558 00:19:27,170 --> 00:19:29,689 And we will be hosted on GitHub. 559 00:19:29,690 --> 00:19:30,799 The link is down there, but 560 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:32,959 unfortunately, um, we are not 561 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:35,029 allowed yet to put it on source because 562 00:19:35,030 --> 00:19:37,159 of our administration, but it will be 563 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:39,289 hopefully open source, um, early 564 00:19:39,290 --> 00:19:40,489 next year. 565 00:19:40,490 --> 00:19:42,649 And um, we we made we 566 00:19:42,650 --> 00:19:44,719 designed this to be very, very flexible 567 00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:46,969 and modular so we can, um, 568 00:19:46,970 --> 00:19:49,189 connect it to other models, for example, 569 00:19:49,190 --> 00:19:51,559 like this land use and vegetation 570 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:53,799 models that Benny just talked about? 571 00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:55,879 Um, and yeah, we tried to follow 572 00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:57,289 these standards of Open-Source Open 573 00:19:57,290 --> 00:19:59,449 Science here and to enable 574 00:19:59,450 --> 00:20:00,979 all people from these different networks, 575 00:20:00,980 --> 00:20:03,229 but also maybe people from 576 00:20:03,230 --> 00:20:05,689 from this community here to to contribute 577 00:20:05,690 --> 00:20:06,799 to this. 578 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:08,899 And yeah, this is an example of 579 00:20:08,900 --> 00:20:11,059 how a typical script 580 00:20:11,060 --> 00:20:13,400 looks like that um, runs, 581 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:16,549 um uh, that's, uh, model 582 00:20:16,550 --> 00:20:18,859 run. So this is just in thirty 583 00:20:18,860 --> 00:20:21,139 lines of code here because we it's, uh, 584 00:20:21,140 --> 00:20:22,849 this this thing is highly modular and 585 00:20:23,900 --> 00:20:26,689 this is just showing how, um, 586 00:20:26,690 --> 00:20:28,129 how simple this can be actually for a 587 00:20:28,130 --> 00:20:29,479 model user. 588 00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:31,609 And this is this is now a bit even 589 00:20:31,610 --> 00:20:32,509 more concrete. 590 00:20:32,510 --> 00:20:34,489 This is, uh, illustrative example the 591 00:20:34,490 --> 00:20:36,559 model that we um 592 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:38,809 that we put together to to show that 593 00:20:38,810 --> 00:20:40,429 this whole thing works. 594 00:20:40,430 --> 00:20:42,679 And um, so the white 595 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:43,939 white boxes, here they are model 596 00:20:43,940 --> 00:20:45,859 components that the model component 597 00:20:45,860 --> 00:20:47,629 developer would and would provide. 598 00:20:47,630 --> 00:20:49,279 For example, the global carbon cycle. 599 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:51,649 So this, uh, that 600 00:20:51,650 --> 00:20:53,839 determines how carbon this, for 601 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:55,409 example, diffusing between the atmosphere 602 00:20:55,410 --> 00:20:57,649 and the ocean. The whole carbon is going 603 00:20:57,650 --> 00:20:59,719 from the, uh, from the 604 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:01,519 vegetation into the atmosphere. 605 00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:03,799 For example, this, for example, 606 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:05,839 entities involved in this carbon cycle 607 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:07,489 component would be the word. 608 00:21:07,490 --> 00:21:09,949 So the whole planet, which is one entity 609 00:21:09,950 --> 00:21:12,209 and then also said because 610 00:21:12,210 --> 00:21:14,299 photosynthesis and in 611 00:21:14,300 --> 00:21:16,070 general biology happens on cells 612 00:21:17,120 --> 00:21:19,219 and entities are, for 613 00:21:19,220 --> 00:21:21,229 example, also represented, individual 614 00:21:21,230 --> 00:21:22,669 social systems are there. 615 00:21:22,670 --> 00:21:25,069 And then also each of these entities 616 00:21:25,070 --> 00:21:27,049 is involved in different processes. 617 00:21:27,050 --> 00:21:28,939 So just to give one example, if you look 618 00:21:28,940 --> 00:21:30,529 into the social, social learning 619 00:21:30,530 --> 00:21:32,719 component, this is showing how 620 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,359 people imitate each other. 621 00:21:35,360 --> 00:21:37,489 So it's a very typical human behavior to 622 00:21:37,490 --> 00:21:39,289 to look what your friends are doing and 623 00:21:39,290 --> 00:21:41,239 then you want to do it as well. 624 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:43,459 Many times, um, if you think 625 00:21:43,460 --> 00:21:45,559 it makes sense and then 626 00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:47,479 the individual has this learn 627 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:49,759 environmentally friendly process 628 00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:51,289 that it participates in. 629 00:21:51,290 --> 00:21:53,379 So this is if you see your friend 630 00:21:53,380 --> 00:21:54,829 is environmentally friendly, maybe you 631 00:21:54,830 --> 00:21:57,229 want to be environmentally friendly, too. 632 00:21:57,230 --> 00:21:58,639 And then we put this all together, and 633 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:00,379 then this gets a bit complicated. 634 00:22:00,380 --> 00:22:02,449 Again, this looks more and more like the 635 00:22:02,450 --> 00:22:03,499 limits to growth model. 636 00:22:04,590 --> 00:22:06,709 Um, and yeah, you can 637 00:22:06,710 --> 00:22:08,959 look into the paper, uh, for for 638 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:10,009 details here. 639 00:22:10,010 --> 00:22:12,079 But um yeah, we have we 640 00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:14,089 have, of course, some some results here. 641 00:22:14,090 --> 00:22:16,819 This is just really for, um, 642 00:22:16,820 --> 00:22:18,379 for illustration. 643 00:22:18,380 --> 00:22:20,539 So these are not, um, these are not 644 00:22:20,540 --> 00:22:22,219 predictions of any kind. 645 00:22:22,220 --> 00:22:24,289 They are not even projections, 646 00:22:24,290 --> 00:22:26,569 but they are just illustrations of 647 00:22:26,570 --> 00:22:28,849 of this base of possibilities 648 00:22:28,850 --> 00:22:30,469 of of a system dynamics. 649 00:22:30,470 --> 00:22:32,689 If you assume all the things 650 00:22:32,690 --> 00:22:34,219 that we have assumed, right? 651 00:22:34,220 --> 00:22:36,499 So they are and this is a very legitimate 652 00:22:36,500 --> 00:22:38,539 thing that models have to do as well, or 653 00:22:38,540 --> 00:22:40,679 that we think models are important for 654 00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:42,439 as well to explore the space of 655 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:44,359 possibilities to really understand how 656 00:22:44,360 --> 00:22:46,849 the world earth system works. 657 00:22:46,850 --> 00:22:49,459 And you don't have to do predictions 658 00:22:49,460 --> 00:22:50,599 to have a good model. 659 00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:52,849 And this is, 660 00:22:52,850 --> 00:22:56,179 for example, we show here trajectories 661 00:22:56,180 --> 00:22:58,279 of the system in the 662 00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:01,279 next 100 years without social processes. 663 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:03,409 So we have, for example, 664 00:23:03,410 --> 00:23:04,969 the environmental friendliness of 665 00:23:04,970 --> 00:23:07,329 individuals is fixed where 666 00:23:07,330 --> 00:23:09,769 certain subsidies, emission Texas 667 00:23:09,770 --> 00:23:12,469 and fossil fuel events are fixed, right? 668 00:23:12,470 --> 00:23:14,149 So here we have, then these things are 669 00:23:14,150 --> 00:23:15,150 not changing. 670 00:23:15,950 --> 00:23:17,659 We put them into the sociocultural 671 00:23:17,660 --> 00:23:18,589 dimension. 672 00:23:18,590 --> 00:23:21,049 Then they are we on the social metabolic 673 00:23:21,050 --> 00:23:22,009 dimension, on the economic. 674 00:23:22,010 --> 00:23:23,239 I mentioned these are the shares of 675 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:25,579 different energy 676 00:23:25,580 --> 00:23:27,889 sources that the societies use. 677 00:23:27,890 --> 00:23:29,629 So in this example, we have five social 678 00:23:29,630 --> 00:23:31,219 systems that are running at the same time 679 00:23:31,220 --> 00:23:33,229 each has 100 individuals. 680 00:23:33,230 --> 00:23:35,329 And in this example, for example, you 681 00:23:35,330 --> 00:23:37,549 have a strong increase of biomass 682 00:23:37,550 --> 00:23:39,979 in the beginning, later, 683 00:23:39,980 --> 00:23:42,019 even later, increase of renewable energy 684 00:23:42,020 --> 00:23:44,629 sources and a decrease of 685 00:23:44,630 --> 00:23:46,819 fossil resources, which 686 00:23:46,820 --> 00:23:48,049 is not very fast. 687 00:23:48,050 --> 00:23:49,759 And then the system here on the 688 00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:51,829 biophysical dimension responds 689 00:23:51,830 --> 00:23:52,789 accordingly. 690 00:23:52,790 --> 00:23:54,649 And then if you switch the social 691 00:23:54,650 --> 00:23:57,289 processes on, so these are now really 692 00:23:57,290 --> 00:23:59,089 people can do social learning so they can 693 00:23:59,090 --> 00:24:01,459 learn to be environmentally friendly 694 00:24:01,460 --> 00:24:02,419 from their peers. 695 00:24:02,420 --> 00:24:04,789 That can be a renewable. 696 00:24:04,790 --> 00:24:06,380 Subsidies can be implemented 697 00:24:07,580 --> 00:24:08,719 under certain conditions. 698 00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:10,339 Emissions Texas can be implemented in the 699 00:24:10,340 --> 00:24:12,079 fossil fuel, then can be implemented 700 00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:14,119 basically by certain voting processes 701 00:24:14,120 --> 00:24:15,409 among the individuals. 702 00:24:15,410 --> 00:24:17,239 So we emulate a democratic decision 703 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:18,529 making process here. 704 00:24:18,530 --> 00:24:19,999 And then we see that all these things 705 00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:21,349 they are, they are switched on quite 706 00:24:21,350 --> 00:24:23,509 fast. And this leads to a rapid 707 00:24:23,510 --> 00:24:26,869 decrease year of the 708 00:24:26,870 --> 00:24:29,209 fossil energy sources and 709 00:24:29,210 --> 00:24:31,309 to a faster increase of the 710 00:24:31,310 --> 00:24:33,559 renewables compared to 711 00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:35,509 the case without social dynamics, right? 712 00:24:35,510 --> 00:24:36,709 So we get a completely different 713 00:24:36,710 --> 00:24:38,899 dynamics, which is, of course, what 714 00:24:38,900 --> 00:24:40,399 you would expect because we change the 715 00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:42,349 model to a large degree. 716 00:24:42,350 --> 00:24:43,969 But this is what this type of modeling is 717 00:24:43,970 --> 00:24:45,289 about to really understand what is 718 00:24:45,290 --> 00:24:46,939 happening when you make plausible 719 00:24:46,940 --> 00:24:47,940 assumptions. 720 00:24:48,770 --> 00:24:51,389 And now, OK, what's the status of this 721 00:24:51,390 --> 00:24:52,999 quote unquote? It is already under 722 00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,069 operational use and it 723 00:24:55,070 --> 00:24:57,169 is ready for community integration, and 724 00:24:57,170 --> 00:24:58,849 we have a description paper submitted 725 00:24:58,850 --> 00:24:59,850 actually today. 726 00:25:00,650 --> 00:25:03,169 And uh, the Open-Source 727 00:25:03,170 --> 00:25:05,329 launch of the software is planned for 728 00:25:05,330 --> 00:25:07,369 early 2018. 729 00:25:07,370 --> 00:25:09,499 Now, OK, two, I want to give to 730 00:25:09,500 --> 00:25:11,959 outlook slides for four 731 00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:13,669 types of research questions that I would 732 00:25:13,670 --> 00:25:15,439 find really interesting important to look 733 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:17,509 at. So 734 00:25:17,510 --> 00:25:19,219 the context of this conference here. 735 00:25:19,220 --> 00:25:21,259 So one is really to look at more into the 736 00:25:21,260 --> 00:25:22,909 competition trade offs of synergies 737 00:25:22,910 --> 00:25:25,219 between these really the two 738 00:25:25,220 --> 00:25:26,539 maybe main 739 00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:29,749 UM transformations going on in 740 00:25:29,750 --> 00:25:31,609 the 21st century. 741 00:25:31,610 --> 00:25:33,739 And one is that the digital 742 00:25:33,740 --> 00:25:36,259 transformation is ongoing rapidly 743 00:25:36,260 --> 00:25:38,059 and is just happening. 744 00:25:38,060 --> 00:25:39,739 And the other one, is this necessary? 745 00:25:39,740 --> 00:25:41,689 Maybe we think necessary social 746 00:25:41,690 --> 00:25:44,149 ecological sustainability transformation. 747 00:25:44,150 --> 00:25:47,299 Um, but there can be 748 00:25:47,300 --> 00:25:48,739 there can be a competition even between 749 00:25:48,740 --> 00:25:49,759 them. 750 00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:52,279 For example, we've seen that before. 751 00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:53,869 There's a large and strongly increasing 752 00:25:53,870 --> 00:25:55,719 energy consumption of digital technology. 753 00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:57,379 So the internet in general is consuming 754 00:25:57,380 --> 00:25:58,819 huge amounts of energy. 755 00:25:58,820 --> 00:26:00,709 Then the blockchain and bitcoin mining 756 00:26:00,710 --> 00:26:02,809 now is becoming is 757 00:26:02,810 --> 00:26:04,279 mentioned a lot as an example, because 758 00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:06,409 bitcoin mining consumes the 759 00:26:06,410 --> 00:26:08,569 same amount of energy as a small country 760 00:26:08,570 --> 00:26:10,699 already, and it's just increasing 761 00:26:10,700 --> 00:26:11,809 exponentially. 762 00:26:11,810 --> 00:26:13,939 Then a bit more on on a more 763 00:26:13,940 --> 00:26:16,159 subtle level, the influence 764 00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:17,899 of digital communication and online 765 00:26:17,900 --> 00:26:19,279 social networks on public opinion, 766 00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:22,459 formation and governance processes 767 00:26:22,460 --> 00:26:24,379 that may be relevant, that are relevant 768 00:26:24,380 --> 00:26:25,949 for sustainability transformation. 769 00:26:25,950 --> 00:26:27,380 So this is really the issue with 770 00:26:28,790 --> 00:26:30,889 debate about fake news and 771 00:26:30,890 --> 00:26:32,899 echo chambers and all these things, 772 00:26:32,900 --> 00:26:35,209 whether they are really there or not, 773 00:26:35,210 --> 00:26:36,589 is, of course, up to debate. 774 00:26:36,590 --> 00:26:38,719 And um, but 775 00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:40,279 this is this is really relevant to study 776 00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:41,929 this more also maybe using these types of 777 00:26:41,930 --> 00:26:43,999 models. And then the last point is 778 00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:45,859 things that are a bit more far off, 779 00:26:45,860 --> 00:26:47,689 maybe, but that people are seriously 780 00:26:47,690 --> 00:26:50,269 concerned about like, um, emerging 781 00:26:50,270 --> 00:26:52,459 general artificial intelligence and then 782 00:26:52,460 --> 00:26:53,779 asking really, what would be the Earth 783 00:26:53,780 --> 00:26:56,089 system consequences of of such, 784 00:26:56,090 --> 00:26:57,199 um, events. 785 00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:00,079 And this is, 786 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:01,489 of course, a bit. Yeah. 787 00:27:01,490 --> 00:27:04,219 Then maybe even more, um 788 00:27:04,220 --> 00:27:05,719 uh, philosophical idea. 789 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:07,939 But there's this interesting debate 790 00:27:07,940 --> 00:27:09,679 about the so-called techno sphere. 791 00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,559 So this is, um um um, 792 00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:14,929 looking at basically the the complex 793 00:27:14,930 --> 00:27:17,239 of global technological 794 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,089 networks and connected to human societies 795 00:27:20,090 --> 00:27:22,189 and what this actually has to 796 00:27:22,190 --> 00:27:24,499 say about sustainability. 797 00:27:24,500 --> 00:27:26,149 And um, they have. 798 00:27:26,150 --> 00:27:28,399 Peter Hough has written a lot about 799 00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:30,889 that and we've made a small contribution 800 00:27:30,890 --> 00:27:33,709 to that debate. And maybe, um, 801 00:27:33,710 --> 00:27:35,839 the um, this type of modeling 802 00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:37,759 that I talked about might also shed some 803 00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:40,159 light on how human societies 804 00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:41,539 are actually interrelated with these 805 00:27:41,540 --> 00:27:43,039 technological and macro structures that 806 00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:45,439 we've created and what this 807 00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:47,809 means for the really 808 00:27:47,810 --> 00:27:50,569 the viability of sustainable 809 00:27:50,570 --> 00:27:51,889 development in the future. 810 00:27:51,890 --> 00:27:54,469 And also, um, 811 00:27:54,470 --> 00:27:56,119 this actually highlights some, some deep 812 00:27:56,120 --> 00:27:58,129 ethical questions again about what 813 00:27:58,130 --> 00:28:00,709 sustainability actually is and 814 00:28:00,710 --> 00:28:03,019 how how this depends on on 815 00:28:03,020 --> 00:28:05,119 a basic humanistic principles so 816 00:28:05,120 --> 00:28:06,859 that that sustainability is really mostly 817 00:28:06,860 --> 00:28:09,139 about humans and what what 818 00:28:09,140 --> 00:28:11,209 is um, what do you 819 00:28:11,210 --> 00:28:13,459 do with that concept if it's true 820 00:28:13,460 --> 00:28:15,649 that humans don't really have 821 00:28:15,650 --> 00:28:18,049 agency anymore, as some people claim, 822 00:28:18,050 --> 00:28:19,969 like Peter and to some degree? 823 00:28:19,970 --> 00:28:22,689 Right. So these are all open questions. 824 00:28:22,690 --> 00:28:24,880 And now the take home messages, 825 00:28:26,950 --> 00:28:29,649 computer simulation model state for 826 00:28:29,650 --> 00:28:31,180 the dole system, microscopes 827 00:28:32,260 --> 00:28:34,209 and and the big social ecological data 828 00:28:34,210 --> 00:28:35,409 analytics, they are really essential 829 00:28:35,410 --> 00:28:37,629 tools for understanding sustainable 830 00:28:37,630 --> 00:28:39,909 development in the Anthropocene. 831 00:28:39,910 --> 00:28:41,469 We think a new class of world Earth 832 00:28:41,470 --> 00:28:43,629 models is really needed to capture key 833 00:28:43,630 --> 00:28:45,369 aspects of this dynamics. 834 00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:49,329 And really one central 835 00:28:49,330 --> 00:28:51,459 challenge of of this century, I think, is 836 00:28:51,460 --> 00:28:53,319 really how to reconcile the 837 00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:54,429 sustainability and digital 838 00:28:54,430 --> 00:28:56,019 transformations. 839 00:28:56,020 --> 00:28:58,149 And yes, 840 00:28:58,150 --> 00:29:00,459 please contact us, maybe contribute 841 00:29:00,460 --> 00:29:01,460 and tweet. 842 00:29:05,930 --> 00:29:06,930 Well. 843 00:29:09,100 --> 00:29:11,229 You used your time perfectly, 844 00:29:11,230 --> 00:29:13,329 which means that we have just two minutes 845 00:29:13,330 --> 00:29:15,399 for two question, if there are any, 846 00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:17,809 please go to the microphone or via 847 00:29:17,810 --> 00:29:20,199 internet. I see one question here 848 00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:22,449 and one perhaps 849 00:29:22,450 --> 00:29:24,160 there, so we have two questions. 850 00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:27,759 I amazing work, really interesting 851 00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,039 talk. Thanks a lot. 852 00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:32,139 So I'm working more in the 853 00:29:32,140 --> 00:29:34,209 Earth system, modeling community and 854 00:29:34,210 --> 00:29:36,459 dare we also have we have the tendency 855 00:29:36,460 --> 00:29:38,649 to make our models more and more complex. 856 00:29:38,650 --> 00:29:40,539 And what we've observed is that as we 857 00:29:40,540 --> 00:29:42,069 make them more complex, the less we 858 00:29:42,070 --> 00:29:44,799 understand them, we do less understand 859 00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:46,989 what's going on. And I've seen that a lot 860 00:29:46,990 --> 00:29:48,699 of your work, you're trying to do the 861 00:29:48,700 --> 00:29:50,949 same, right? You trying to integrate all 862 00:29:50,950 --> 00:29:53,079 the processes that you're interested in. 863 00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:55,209 And then we've observed that a 864 00:29:55,210 --> 00:29:57,399 lot of the uncertainties we know 865 00:29:57,400 --> 00:29:59,349 that we have are coming from from the 866 00:29:59,350 --> 00:30:01,449 parameters. So each time you integrate a 867 00:30:01,450 --> 00:30:03,759 new module into 868 00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:05,829 your interior model, you at some 869 00:30:05,830 --> 00:30:07,569 time, at some point you need to 870 00:30:07,570 --> 00:30:09,669 parameterized some values you don't 871 00:30:09,670 --> 00:30:12,069 know. And for us, it's been very hard 872 00:30:12,070 --> 00:30:14,169 to measure some of the quantities. 873 00:30:14,170 --> 00:30:16,239 And my question would be, 874 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:17,919 I guess, for you, it's even harder, 875 00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:19,239 right? You. 876 00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:21,399 What are your parameters and how do 877 00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:23,229 you try to estimate them? 878 00:30:23,230 --> 00:30:24,230 Thanks a lot. 879 00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:28,419 Right. So I mean, they of 880 00:30:28,420 --> 00:30:30,819 course, this is this is 881 00:30:30,820 --> 00:30:32,499 always the challenge with modeling. 882 00:30:32,500 --> 00:30:34,449 And um, they are. 883 00:30:34,450 --> 00:30:37,119 Yeah, for example, um, some 884 00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:39,189 some parameters that that are 885 00:30:40,420 --> 00:30:41,799 typical for these types of social 886 00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,379 dynamics modeling, they are concerning 887 00:30:44,380 --> 00:30:46,649 rates. For example, what is the rate of 888 00:30:46,650 --> 00:30:48,909 of imitation of of 889 00:30:48,910 --> 00:30:51,699 behaviors or opinions between people? 890 00:30:51,700 --> 00:30:53,979 Compared to the rate of um 891 00:30:53,980 --> 00:30:56,319 of the network dynamics, 892 00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:58,569 the whole faster network changes 893 00:30:58,570 --> 00:31:00,219 due to processes like Homophily, for 894 00:31:00,220 --> 00:31:01,929 example, which is the process that you 895 00:31:01,930 --> 00:31:03,219 would let you up. 896 00:31:03,220 --> 00:31:05,529 Typically, people are more likely to 897 00:31:05,530 --> 00:31:06,879 interact with other people that are 898 00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:09,249 similar to them, um, than 899 00:31:09,250 --> 00:31:11,109 that with people that are different. 900 00:31:11,110 --> 00:31:13,779 And so this is different timescales. 901 00:31:13,780 --> 00:31:15,279 They can be parameters. 902 00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:17,349 And of course, you can 903 00:31:17,350 --> 00:31:19,659 address that by doing, um, 904 00:31:19,660 --> 00:31:21,789 by doing simulations with, um, 905 00:31:21,790 --> 00:31:23,979 on parameters basis model 906 00:31:23,980 --> 00:31:25,569 robustness tests. 907 00:31:25,570 --> 00:31:27,519 One thing that that we do a lot in the 908 00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:29,679 current project is actually to to do 909 00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:31,989 this huge agent based simulations 910 00:31:31,990 --> 00:31:33,219 that that have shown you today. 911 00:31:33,220 --> 00:31:35,829 But we also do conceptual 912 00:31:35,830 --> 00:31:38,409 modeling and Kepler's theoretical 913 00:31:38,410 --> 00:31:40,869 work where we try to really understand 914 00:31:40,870 --> 00:31:42,159 what the models are doing in a more 915 00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:43,839 simplified way. So actually, most of our 916 00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:46,179 work so far has been working 917 00:31:46,180 --> 00:31:48,339 on very simplified models 918 00:31:48,340 --> 00:31:50,109 of such things that we can still 919 00:31:50,110 --> 00:31:51,669 understand mathematically, sometimes even 920 00:31:51,670 --> 00:31:53,619 derive analytical mathematical 921 00:31:53,620 --> 00:31:55,749 approximations, and this works 922 00:31:55,750 --> 00:31:57,489 quite well. But of course, this is this 923 00:31:57,490 --> 00:31:58,629 is always a challenge. 924 00:31:58,630 --> 00:32:00,759 Yeah, I saw 925 00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:02,319 that there is one question from the 926 00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:04,389 internet, so I ask you, please 927 00:32:04,390 --> 00:32:06,219 go afterwards and speak with them. 928 00:32:06,220 --> 00:32:08,079 We don't have time because of the next 929 00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:09,939 speakers. So internet, what is your 930 00:32:09,940 --> 00:32:11,139 question? 931 00:32:11,140 --> 00:32:13,269 Yeah, it's somehow connected. 932 00:32:13,270 --> 00:32:15,819 Um, how does your group, especially 933 00:32:15,820 --> 00:32:17,889 in your scientific community in general, 934 00:32:17,890 --> 00:32:19,179 validate models? 935 00:32:19,180 --> 00:32:21,399 And how do you convince people that 936 00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:23,289 predictions using this model actually 937 00:32:23,290 --> 00:32:24,309 have some validity? 938 00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:29,009 Right. So I um, 939 00:32:29,010 --> 00:32:31,139 I try to I try to address 940 00:32:31,140 --> 00:32:33,059 that during the talk already, but very 941 00:32:33,060 --> 00:32:35,159 briefly, I think the one 942 00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:37,379 thing is that we in this social 943 00:32:37,380 --> 00:32:39,569 dynamics modeling particularly, it's very 944 00:32:39,570 --> 00:32:42,119 difficult to do quantitative predictions. 945 00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:44,219 And it's also why what what we try 946 00:32:44,220 --> 00:32:46,409 to do more is to as we validate 947 00:32:46,410 --> 00:32:48,839 the model it's doing, we're producing 948 00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:51,089 qualitatively what's past developments, 949 00:32:51,090 --> 00:32:53,189 for example, in this study on on the 950 00:32:53,190 --> 00:32:55,349 smoking change in smoking behavior 951 00:32:55,350 --> 00:32:56,789 and how people were marginalized and 952 00:32:56,790 --> 00:32:57,790 social net. 953 00:33:09,810 --> 00:33:10,810 And this. 954 00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,259 This one goes to one of your pockets, 955 00:33:25,260 --> 00:33:27,299 maybe with your hoodie or jeans. 956 00:33:27,300 --> 00:33:28,300 If it has 957 00:33:29,580 --> 00:33:32,719 always ways that way, 958 00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:33,720 you know, 959 00:33:34,860 --> 00:33:36,509 we really want to have to keep running 960 00:33:36,510 --> 00:33:38,429 around the front. 961 00:33:38,430 --> 00:33:39,430 OK, 962 00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:44,320 maybe hold up. 963 00:34:01,180 --> 00:34:02,180 The.